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理悦CEMA·知与行系列研讨会:The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory

发布日期:2024-03-19

主题:The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory

报告人:李翊良,对外经济贸易大学助理教授

摘要:We study the causal effects and policy implications of global supply chain disruptions. We construct a new index of supply chain disruptions from the mandatory automatic identification system data of container ships, developing a novel spatial clustering algorithm that determines real-time congestion from the position, speed, and heading of container ships in major ports around the globe. We develop a model with search frictions between producers and retailers that links spare productive capacity with congestion in the goods market and the responses of output and prices to supply chain shocks. The co-movements of output, prices, and spare capacity yield unique identifying restrictions for supply chain disturbances that allow us to study the causal effects of such disruptions. We document how supply chain shocks drove inflation during 2021 but that, in 2022, traditional demand and supply shocks also played an important role in explaining inflation. Finally, we show how monetary policy is more effective in taming inflation after a global supply chain shock than in regular circumstances.

报告人简介:李翊良是对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院的助理教授。他的研究方向为宏观经济学、国际贸易和交通经济学的交叉领域。他在2022年从牛津大学获得了经济学博士学位,并在联合国、国际货币基金组织和世界银行等国际组织的工作中积累了宝贵经验。

时间:2024年3月21日(周四)中午12:00-1:30

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主办单位:创新发展学院中国经济与管理研究院

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